ROME (March 5, 2012) - For the first time in the history of the “war on drugs”, detailed daily data on cocaine seizures are available, although not definitive yet. Thanks to the investigative work of Narcoleaks, it has been possible to analyze in depth the trend of cocaine seizures worldwide throughout all 2011. Through these data we can better understand the different aspects of drug trafficking and, in particular, anticipate the emerging trends. United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) will provide aggregate data for the entire 2011 only in one year and a half from now. In the meantime, several phenomena will have changed their course.
The data collected in 2011 show an upward trend in seizures during the year, as indicated by the total amounts seized on each quarter:
- First quarter: 164.657 metric tons
- Second quarter: 179.557 metric tons
- Third quarter: 192.920 metric tons
- Fourth quarter: 203.407 metric tons
This was not a random growth, but rather a consolidated pattern distributed over time. It is confirmed by the graphical representation of the daily moving averages.
After an initial three week stage, which was necessary for the consolidation of data, the graph shows a steady increase in daily moving average. There was an initial ceiling of about 1,500 kilograms seized daily, then from the 67th day through the 84th, the ceiling was at 1,760 kilograms of cocaine seized daily until when, after 300 days from the start of 2011, the daily averages outstripped 2 metric tons. While particularly lucky and successful anti-drug operations by individual countries can lead to an increased overall figure of seizures, affecting the annual figure and making it hardly relatable to the general traffic of cocaine throughout the country. Globally, however, the overall figure of seizures is constant, and its tendency is barely affected by large seizures. The ‘stability’ of these data allows, therefore, to conduct a substantial in-depth analysis of cocaine production. We’ll talk more about this in our future updates.